[Me & X] Will AI replace software engineers?
X: Do you think AI will replace software engineers?
Me: Heaven helps us. I told you eight years ago that vibe coding (or what we called conversational programming) was going to be a big thing but you had to stop thinking AI vs Human and start thinking AI + Human. There are so many factors involved.
X: No, you didn't.
Me: Seriously? You know I mostly copied those words from a previous tweet in Nov, 2018.
X: Vibe coding is different.
Me: Sure. It's shorter and more catchy. It's not a new concept, dates back to graphical design theory, so mid 1970s. I even ran a population study of almost 1,000 companies to examine this question of AI replaces people or replaces tasks.
X: When?
Me: 2021. I'll let you guess ... no ... I just tell you. The next generation are focused on replacing tasks.
X: Vibe coding hadn't been invented then. Anyway, the future is agentic engineering.
Me: This may come as a shock to you but the concepts you are describing are much older than the memes.
X: I suppose you know what's going to happen next?
Me: I can tell you what is happening now: co-evolution of practice, punctuated equilibrium, explosion of higher order systems in the adjacent unexplored, Jevon's paradox, inertia through past success ... how long have you got, this is quite a list.
X: I suppose you wrote those in 2018?
Me: No. About 2008. It was useful when discussing cloud. Though I took those patterns from previous historical changes of which there has been many.
X: This is different.
Me: If you say so. That's what they said about cloud.
X: AI is going to cause mass unemployment.
Me: Very Donald Michaels of you.
X: Who's that?
Me: "Computers and automation threaten to create vast unemployment and social unrest". 1962. January. New York Times. Though the history of such warnings is much older than this.
X: Michaels was prophetic.
Me: Prophetic would have been "In 60 years time we're going to be talking about how computers and automation might threaten to create vast unemployment, but we won't worry about that now".
X: This is different.
Me: I know, you keep telling me it is. Shall we wait and see? Can I suggest, maybe ... 60 years? It's bad enough my father's generation was traumatised by such nonsense without also traumatising my son's generation.
X: You sound like one of those people saying horse drawn carriages have a future!
Me: You mean a cab driver? Yes, I could imagine you standing on a street corner in 1900 declaring "The end of cabbies is nigh!" ... the rest of us adapt to technology change without all the drama, just like cabbies did.
Originally published on LinkedIn.