[Opinion] Tiresome myths: fewer engineers
Back in January 2023, I did warn about the tiresome myths that we would see with the growth of vibe coding (aka conversational programming). One of these was the idea of 'fewer engineers'. Well, we've already gone through these prognostications of the so called 'great and good', the presentation of doom & gloom for the industry followed by the subsequent backpedalling. Now, we seem to have finally arrived at the first shoots of an expected change and the demand for software engineers is increasing. This is likely to end up in the same place as DevOps - new titles, new pay rises, new conferences, new books and a mad rush by companies for people they've just fired - and so I'll repeat my cartoon warning (attached).
If you've did find yourself listening to the advice of 'ChatPPT' agencies (the usual suspects in management consultants) then for your future organisational health can I suggest again that you consider the following ... 'ban them across the organisation. You'll thank me later. Instead, have your execs use ChatGPT directly for 'consultancy advice' and explain to them that it's just as capable of producing glossy, poorly thought through nonsense and it's dramatically cheaper'
The only people who really benefited from this tale of AI will replace software engineers was AI vendors, it's part of how they justified their valuations. In practice, AI was never likely to reduce IT budgets or reduce IT staff, it's simply going to lead to more stuff being done.
Of course, this doesn't mean that companies won't dabble with the idea of fewer programmers. Many will rush headlong into a world of epistemic debt where the basic chain of comprehension of their systems will be lost. They will repeat the same mistakes of the Roman Empire and focus on 'practical' rather than 'understanding'. Whilst the human cost will be unpleasant, I do look forward to our first collapse of a major company that has lost control. The sooner, the better.
Originally published on LinkedIn.