[Opinion] Practice diffusion timelines
I was asked a question which is connected to my population studies of companies. I do these every decade as it takes a lot of work to identify the weak signals to test. The next one won't be until 2031.
Yes, the 2021 study (attached) identified the use of AI in replacing tasks (rather than people), a drive toward more ethical communication and leadership rather than mass influence, modelled and better understood value chains (supply chains when talking across an industry) and a focus on outcomes rather than outputs. However, these practices take time to diffuse. A good yardstick is a decade for the practices to start becoming popular and more commonly talked about as they head slowly towards mainstream.
Hence if you look at the 2011 study (attached), the use of ecosystems, being drive by data, the methods of design for failure, the use of chaos engines (think Netflix Chaos Monkey) and the concepts of DevOps were all there in 2011 but still pretty much unknown to companies. By 2021, the picture was different.
Don't expect these ideas of AI replacing people, supply chains being poorly understood, the focus on output and even the ideas of heroic leadership to disappear anytime soon. Practices change through social systems and those take time ... lots of time. The best yardstick I have for it becoming the new norm in practice is currently about 30 to 50 years which is why old practices like Test Driven Development are still on that journey.
I know, in this world of AI, oodles of people think things are changing so rapidly that by tomorrow it will all be different. The technological changes are significant, the practices will take time.
Originally published on LinkedIn.