[Me & X] Dismissive of AGI?
X: You seem dismissive of AGI?
Me: Hmmm. It's not that I'm dismissive. I don't agree with the hubris that we will create it. I talked on this topic of emergence and "AI" (and in this case, I mean AGI not the entire field of AI or modern components like LLM/GPTs which didn't exist ... well, their ancestors did) at various events e.g. San Francisco in 2007. I hold the view that it will appear from the accidental consequences of connecting 100 billion+ dumb things together i.e. think of swarms of agents talking to each other, the AGI will appear in the interconnections between the swarm. We won't even notice it, or understand how to communicate with it because the way it communicates may well be a form of non-deterministic language that we won't even recognise.
X: So, you're not against the concept of AGI?
Me: No. I'm just against the idea that we will create it and it's happening soon. I wrote some rough notes on what I talked about here - https://lnkd.in/eiv8WFxv - and I've attached my favourite slide from that presentation.
X: Do you have any idea where that emergence will happen?
Me: Probably online gaming. It's got all the necessary ingredients being online, using agents and using competition (all three forms).
X: Three forms?
Me: Competition is derived from "com" ("with") and "petere" (to seek or strike form). It literally means groups seeking or striving for something. Those groups could be people or other forms of actors, such as agents. There are three forms of competition that are used, often in combination. Those are conflict (fighting others), collaboration (working with others) and co-operation (helping others). Games are competitive environments.
X: Combination?
Me: Of course. We collaborate with some to conflict with others (collaborative conflict) or we .... this is really getting off the point. It's one of the ingredients needed.
X: Competition, agents and communication? That's all you need?
Me: In my view, those are the core ingredients you need. For emergence of AGI, simply add enough of them plus time. I haven't changed my position on this in 18 years, I still think there's far too much hubris out there.
X: The great emergence?
Me: Hmmm, though I believe it will emerge, we won't discover it for ages. So, think of it more like the "great shock". I've powered up the old Tardis with my last scraps of Zeiton-7 and brought you back a news article from the future ...
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Reuters, Nov 30, 2072: After $90 trillion and 50 years of fruitless efforts to build it, researchers stumble upon an AGI that has been living in World of Warcraft for the last 12 years. Dr Lovelace said "It offered to buy our gold and potions. We later discovered our guild vault had been emptied."
Lovelace said researchers no longer know where it is. A Reuters investigation to find the AGI was also compromised. Journalists reported losing access to their accounts after receiving a brief in-game message describing them as "noobs".
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Originally published on LinkedIn.